Manchester, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

013
FXUS66 KEKA 072157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
Issued by National Weather Service Medford OR
257 PM PDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Calm and warm weather will persist through the end of
the week with a diurnal marine layer near shore. A widespread
wetting rain will impact the area Sunday into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak ridge has continued to build across the area
today. Highs in the interior have crept up to near 80 with generally
calm, terrain wind. A strengthening marine inversion, however, is
apparent along shore keeping conditions cooler with areas of broken
stratus clouds. Marine influence will only strengthen overnight. High
pressure and similar calm conditions will persist through the end of
the week with interior highs peaking around Friday in the mid 80s.

There is high model confidence that a well defined and deep trough
will begin to dip across the area this weekend into early next week.
This trough will bring at least one more taste of winter with gusty
south wind along shore and widespread wetting rain. Current runs of
the GFS indicate a low level coastal jet with speeds up to 60 mph.
At the surface, the NBM currently suggests most likely peak gusts
of up to 50 mph on high ridges late Sunday through next Monday.
Similarly, NBM shows most likely rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches at
higher elevations of Humboldt and Del Norte with lighter wetting
rain further south. While the occurrence of a trough has high
confidence there is some model variance. Essentially all model
ensemble members have shifted the system slightly later with most
rain now forecast to occur on Monday. About 25% of models show a
slightly deeper trough that would be conducive to heavier rain and
strong wind. Even that high end scenario, however, would most likely
have only moderate impacts. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Intermittent MVFR stratus continues to develop along the
coast beneath scattered cirrus as a weak surface front moves
onshore. Gusty NW winds will continue this afternoon with gusts 10
to 15 knots possible at the coast. HREF indicates an enhanced marine
layer developing behind the front after 00Z this afternoon,
potentially producing periods of MFR to briefly IFR stratus and
reduced visbility`s this evening. Probability`s for <1000 ft
ceilings are 50 to 75% through early Thursday morning, especially at
ACV. Light offshore flow may keep viz from falling below 5SM
overnight. Persistent northerlies are expected to develop again
Thursday afternoon with HREF showing a stronger signal for clearing
and VFR conditions.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas have diminished slightly as a weak upper
shortwave disrupts the northerly wind pattern. Small craft
conditions with 25 to 30 knot gusts continue in the southern outer
waters and downwind of Cape Mendocino. Northerlies will remain
elevated in the outer and southern waters through at least Saturday
as a ridge builds into the eastern Pacific. The inner waters will
remain slightly calmer with seas 4 to 6 feet and light to gentle
breezes. A stronger system is expected to bring worsening conditions
late this weekend into early next week.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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